Essays
Tagged "judgment"
3 essays touching on judgment.
Economics
The Base Rate Is Usually the Whole Answer
Before the story, ask what usually happens.
A test that's 99% accurate can still be wrong more often than it's right — because how rare the thing is matters more than how good the test is.
Surya · 2 min read
Economics
DECISION QUALITY × OUTCOME
GOOD OUTCOMEBAD OUTCOMEGOOD CALL
Deserved Win
Bad Beat
BAD CALLDumb Luck
Deserved Loss
2 OF 4 GET MISJUDGEDGRADE THE PROCESS
A Good Decision Can Still Lose
Good process and good outcome are not the same thing.
Judging a decision by how it turned out is the most natural mistake in decision-making — and it teaches you the wrong lesson from both your wins and your losses.
Surya · 3 min read
Economics
DECISIONCONTINUEQUIT
Already Spent$840M$840M
Cost Ahead$220M$0
Benefit Ahead$90M$0
SAME ON BOTH SIDESCANCELS OUT OF THE MATH
Sunk Costs Can't Answer the Question You're Asking
Money already spent cannot vote on what happens next.
Continuing a failing project because of how much you've already spent isn't loyalty or discipline. It's a mathematical error dressed up as one.
Surya · 3 min read